A probability for a shot
FIFA defines expected goals as the average probability of scoring from an attempt. A hypothetical shot valued at 0.20 xG carries an estimated 20% scoring chance in that model. It does not promise a goal every fifth attempt or say what this particular finish must become.
Know what enters the model
FIFA's published methodology uses factors including distance, angle, defensive pressure, body part and goalkeeper position. That documented model does not include individual finishing or goalkeeping ability. Check a provider's methodology before comparing figures: a decimal is only interpretable when you understand what the calculation represents.
Our way to use it
Pair the number with a shot map and the video. Ask whether chances came from repeatable situations or one unusual sequence, and what promising attacks never reached a shot. These are interpretation questions, not extra information contained in xG itself. Keep the score as the result and use the estimate as a starting point for discussing chance creation.
Sources & further reading
- FIFA Training Centre — Expected goals ↗
- FIFA — Enhanced Football Intelligence explanation document, xG methodology ↗
